Inflation Runs Hotter Than Expected in October, Cementing Bets on a December Fed Rate Hike

WASHINGTON, Nov. 10 (TodayViralUSA) — U.S. consumer prices rose faster than expected in October, the government said Tuesday, a hotter-than-forecast reading that all but locks in an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve next month.

The consumer price index climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.4% from September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected 0.3%. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3%, also above the 0.2% forecast.

No annual figure this month

In an unusual twist, the bureau did not publish the closely watched year-over-year inflation rate. Last fall’s federal government shutdown halted price collection in October 2025, leaving no comparable base for a 12-month calculation. The agency was able to report annual changes for a handful of individual items.

Headline prices had jumped 0.6% in September, so October’s figure marks some cooling. But it still exceeded expectations at a moment when policymakers are watching for signs that price pressures from the Iran war, tariffs and the artificial intelligence investment boom are becoming entrenched. Inflation has run above the Fed’s 2% target for roughly five and a half years.

Where prices rose

Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the overall increase, the bureau said. Food prices climbed 0.5%, with beef up 0.9% and snacks up 1%, according to CNBC’s breakdown of the data.

Energy prices rose 0.7%, a sharp slowdown from September’s 5.2% surge. Gasoline was up 1% for the month after a 9.1% jump the month before, and pump prices remain 37.4% higher than a year ago. Electricity rose 0.9%.

There was relief in some categories. Used car and truck prices fell 1.2%, and apparel, a tariff-sensitive sector, edged up just 0.1%. Inflation-adjusted wages were flat for the month.

Fed hike now the base case

Treasury yields rose and stock futures slipped after the release. Traders fully priced in a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed’s Dec. 8–9 meeting, and odds of a larger half-point move rose to about 14%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, as cited by CNBC.

“This was the report the market could least afford to see,” said Karen Manna, fixed income investment strategist at Federated Hermes. “A hotter inflation print raises fresh questions about whether the Fed has done enough to contain price pressures.”

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London before the data was released that a hot report could lead him to favor a half-point increase. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September and held its benchmark range at 3.75% to 4% in October.

The figures are among the first economic snapshots since last week’s midterm elections, in which voters’ frustration over the cost of living played a central role. The next CPI report is due Dec. 10, the day after the Fed’s final meeting of the year.