WASHINGTON, Oct. 8 (TodayViralUSA) — With less than four weeks until the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Democrats are increasingly on offense in states that President Donald Trump won by double digits two years ago, stretching the Senate battleground into Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina and Alaska and forcing Republicans to defend once-safe ground.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report this week shifted three Senate races toward Democrats: Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Cook now estimates Democrats will gain between two and six seats, a range that includes the net four they need to win control of the chamber, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
“At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many,” the analysts wrote, adding that Trump has become a drag on Republican candidates even in deeply conservative states because of rising fuel prices and the high cost of living.
Tight races on red terrain
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall leads Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the nation’s largest United Methodist congregation, 47% to 46% in a recent New York Times/Siena poll, according to a Forbes tracker of competitive races. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is running roughly even with Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, and polling in South Carolina has shown Democrat Annie Andrews within the margin of error.
Elsewhere, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 45% in Texas, and former Sen. Sherrod Brown led Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 46% in Ohio, in New York Times/Siena surveys released last week. In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola was ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan among voters 50 and older in a separate Times/Siena poll.
Republicans see openings in Michigan and Maine
Republicans retain a financial advantage in almost every competitive state and still hope to flip Michigan and hold Maine, which could blunt Democratic gains. A Fox News poll showed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, 50% to 49%, while a Marist survey had Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, 51% to 47%.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas led former Republican Sen. John Sununu 51% to 44% in a St. Anselm College poll, and in North Carolina former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper held a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in a YouGov/Catawba College survey.
A difficult national environment for the GOP
The shifting map reflects a broader environment that has turned against the president’s party. Trump’s approval rating stood at 38% in the Silver Bulletin polling average this week amid fatigue with the Iran war and its effect on fuel prices, and Democrats held a lead of about 9 points on the generic congressional ballot in the same average.
Control of one or both chambers would give Democrats the power to block much of Trump’s legislative agenda and to launch investigations into his administration during the final two years of his term.
Sources & Credits
- Cook Political Report: A Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights as Kansas Moves to Toss Up; Two Other Races Shift Left
- Forbes: Hottest Midterm Races: 3 Races Shift Toward Democrats
- USA Today: ‘Blue tsunami?’ Democrats expand midterm fight into deep-red states
Image: Elli, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
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