Researchers Flag 152 Polymarket Wallets That May Have Traded on Military Secrets

WASHINGTON, Aug. 21 (TodayViralUSA) – More than 150 wallets on Polymarket’s international platform show trading patterns consistent with the use of non-public U.S. military information, according to research released on Thursday. Analysts say the findings point to a national security risk that goes beyond any single illicit bet.

The study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), a nonprofit network of academics and investigators who specialize in illicit finance, was first reported by Reuters. It examined every settled market on the platform through May 5.

Tracking the “Orcas”

Because Polymarket’s international platform settles trades on a public blockchain, every wager can be seen, though the traders remain anonymous. ACDC focused on “long-shot” bets, which it defined as at least $2,500 wagered within an hour or less on an outcome priced at 35% odds or lower.

Within that group, the researchers identified 556 wallets they called “Orcas,” after the killer whale’s precise and selective hunting. These accounts typically opened, quickly placed a highly successful long-shot bet in a niche market where insiders might have an informational edge, and then often cashed out and went dormant.

Of those, 152 wallets bet on military and defense markets with exceptional success. They earned about $8 million combined and had an average win rate of 97.2%. ACDC acknowledged that luck or other factors could explain some of the activity, but said these wallets were the most likely to have traded on military secrets. The group said it had found dozens of wallets that had not been reported before.

The copycat problem

The researchers said their biggest concern is not the insider profits but what follows them. Larger traders, which they called “Whales,” and automated bots appeared to watch for Orca activity and copy it. In one case cited in the study, an Orca bet on U.S. military action in Iran hours before strikes in June 2025, and a bot and a whale then placed copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000. Similar patterns appeared before U.S.-Israeli air strikes on Tehran in February.

“It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren’t monitoring these markets,” ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi told Reuters. He added that unusual betting activity on the platform is far more observable than most people assume.

Copycat trading is legal. The study argues, however, that it can amplify and broadcast signals of imminent military operations. If financial speculators can spot insider bets in real time, ACDC said, so can militaries and intelligence services around the world.

Growing scrutiny

The findings add to pressure on the prediction market industry. In April, a U.S. soldier was charged with using classified information to bet on the January removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Prosecutors say he made about $400,000. He has pleaded not guilty, and he is not among the 152 wallets because he built his position gradually.

Polymarket did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment. The company has said it maintains strict controls, monitors for suspicious activity and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities. The Pentagon said it does not comment on intelligence matters or third-party research. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has said it will police misconduct in the sector, declined to comment.

Proposed remedies

ACDC recommends requiring all traders to verify their identities and withholding payouts on suspicious trades pending investigation. It goes further, arguing that markets where non-public information is most actionable should be banned outright, because limits on who can bet and after-the-fact law enforcement will not be enough.